China's exports have shifted, with the U.S. now accounting for less than 15% of total exports, down from nearly 18% in the 2010s. As Donald Trump threatens to impose higher tariffs, analysts expect China to respond with significant fiscal stimulus, potentially exceeding 10 trillion yuan, to bolster its economy amid a real estate slump and sluggish consumer spending. The upcoming National People's Congress meeting is seen as a critical moment for these economic strategies.
China's anticipated fiscal stimulus plans may hinge on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, with analysts predicting a larger package if Trump wins. Local governments face challenges due to strict tax enforcement, impacting business activity, while the central government focuses on addressing local debt. Despite potential support, consumption stimulus is expected to be more property-focused, with market volatility influencing the scale of any announced measures.
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